Two games in Japan not withstanding, today is the real opening day for the MLB as the rest of the National and American league teams get going…and my beloved Dodgers are taking on the hated Giants at Chavez Ravine.

With that in mind I’m going to do the terribly stupid thing of making my annual pre-season (or, beginning of the season I guess) predictions which, if the Cardinals world series victory of 2006 is any indication, will all be completely wrong.

AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

When a team has won two of the past four World Series, as the Red Sox have, it’s hard to not pick them. Especially when that team is far and away the best in their division. The Yankees will be fun to watch this year, since they have some young players mixing in with their veterans, and ARod pretty much assures them at least 70 wins on his own, but they won’t take the Sox. The Rays really are on the upswing (for once!), too bad they play in the AL East where any high profile player on the Yanks or Sox is making more then the entire Tampa Bay franchise. The Blue Jays made some decent moves but, again, AL East. The Orioles are now, possibly, the worst franchise in the entire sport. I don’t know why Baltimorians (Baltimorites?) haven’t strung Angelos up yet…

AL CENTRAL
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

Yes the Indians made it to the ALCS, but Detroit added Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis (whose a fifth starter now). I’m not entirely sold on them as a playoff team. Leyland is a good manager, but their bullpen is a big question, especially if they’re stuck with Todd Jones longer then expected. Cleveland will be good again, but I don’t expect Hafner to rebound like some people think. Minnesota, even without Santana and Jones still have a solid core, and Gardenhire’s players always give it their all. The White Sox could surprise, or they couldn’t. I’m not sure about Guillen as a manager. The longer he’s in the South Side the less and less he appears to know what he’s doing. Some year the Royals won’t finish in the bottom…but not this year. They are starting to see some of their kids play well, unfortunately they play in the second most competitive division in all of MLB.

AL WEST
1. Anaheim Angels
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland Athletics

This one could be close, considering Kelvim Escobar may be out for the rest of the year (if not, forever). If Lackey comes back fine, the Angels will be fine, if not…The Mariners made a very good short term trade, but since they haven’t had much of a legitimate power hitter (who isn’t always on the DL) since Edgar Martinez, trading away Adam Jones may come to haunt them in years to come, but the Angels are vulnerable, so who knows? The Rangers, if they could ever get anyone who could pitch, would be a good team, but they will always be stuck in the middle. No team in the MLB has more crests and troughs then the A’s, in part because of a small payroll, and in part because Billy Bean is always looking to capitalize on any advantage he has (which in this last off season was proven veterans). They’ll rise to preeminence in the AL West again in three years or so, until then A’s fans can content themselves with the knowledge that they have to watch their team in, literally, one of the worst baseball stadiums in the world.

AL WILDCARD
1. Cleveland Indians

I think the Yankees could possibly swipe this, but they’re perennially shaky pitching is now even more reliant on aging veterans and unproven kids and they have no real ace. Cleveland is still well balanced, and will probably feel they have something to prove after last season’s ALCS collapse.

NL EAST
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

I’m not sure why nearly everyone else wants to anoint the Phillies the new kings of the senior circuit. Last I checked, they had one decent starter and only made the playoffs last year because the Mets, literally, fell into a black hole (I don’t think they ever even found Shawn Green…). This current iteration of the Braves is fairly young and untested (all props due to Chipper), but they’ll have Texeira for a whole season, and they’re pitching looks really good this year. Plus they have Bobby Cox whereas the Mets and Phillies are stuck with two guys who claim to know how to manage, but evidence has suggested otherwise. The Marlins will probably be decent, but once they show signs of competitiveness the entire roster will probably be traded away, or the manager fired, or both, on the same day. As for the Nationals, I’m just going to say that when you’re opening day starter is a 600 pound half-man/half-dominican walrus, you’re in for a very long 162 games.

NL CENTRAL
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Houston Astros
5. St. Louis Cardinals
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

I picked the Brewers last year, and damnit if they didn’t lose the division right at the end. Honestly, you could make a compelling case for the Brewers, Reds or Cubs. Not because they’re good, really, but just because they’re all pretty even. Even the Astros have a (very) slight outside chance of winning this division. But unlike the AL EAST and CENTRAL, this one won’t be fun to watch. The Cardinals are just plain bad, and Pujols should just scrap this year and get the surgery already. I take back my comment about Baltimore being the worst organization in the MLB, at least they made some smart moves this off season to pick up prospects. The Pirates are, hands down, terrible. They should be playing DOUBLE-A teams! And if Jason Bay still has a pulse by July, I guarantee you he’ll be traded.

NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Diego Padres
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Francisco Giants

I am willing to admit that my selection of the Dodgers as division champions is base more on the fact that this is what I want to occur. But the problem with making this choice is that the NL WEST is the toughest division in baseball, period. Besides the Giants (HA HA, suck it Giants!), any of the teams could win it (in fact, LA, Arizona, Colorado, and San Diego have all made the playoffs in the last three years), and it’ll come down to, probably, whoever has the best health over the course of the season. Arizona won the division last year with a -20 run differential, so I think they will lose a few more games this year unless their young bats do some serious maturing (not assured). And while Dan Haren was a huge addition, besides him and Brandon Webb, the rest of their pitching staff is (including the bullpen) pretty questionable to me. San Diego can pitch, and may be even deeper if Prior gives them a decent amount of starts, but other than Adrian Gonzalez they have no bats. Colorado, on the other hand, can hit, but they have even more pitching questions then Diamondbacks, and it’s doubtful they’ll end the season winning 18 straight games. The Giants are just bad. I can’t stress this enough because it makes me so happy. They’re really bad. Like, bad BAD! And the Dodgers, I think, have the best mix of youth and experience. Both Jones and Kuroda were huge signings, but already the boys in blue have been forced to turn to Blake Dewitt, a guy who had been scheduled to start the season at Jacksonville, to fill the 3rd base void. Hopefully, the starting pitching won’t be as thin this year (now that Tomko and Hendrickson are both gone). Basically, if Kemp and Loney produce they way they did at the end of last year, Martin does not regress (which he probably won’t) and Andrew Jones hits somewhere in the realm of .280 we should be fine.

NL WILDCARD
1. Philadelphia Phillies

The NL West has produced the wildcard team something like 3 of the last four seasons, but it’s going to be so competitive this year, that I just don’t see it happening. The NL CENTRAL division champ will be lucky to be a .500 team, so by default the second place NL EAST Team gets it.

So my playoff teams are:

AL - Red Sox, Tigers, Indians and Angels
NL - Braves, Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers

If pushed, I’d say that the Red Sox and Braves will probably meet in the World Series. At this point, I’d say the Sox are the odds on favorites. It is so hard to repeat as champions that I hesitate to pick them, but as it is now, they have the best team, one of the deepest rotations and bullpens, and a great manager, so they get the nod.

And for all of you still reading this…there will be a post later tonight (once I find/hook up my scanner) with much recapping of Saturday’s festivities, and for those that weren’t there, a visual treat courtesy of gilgrim.

Tags: Baseball Predictions, Everyone Can Go To Hell

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